Newspaper ABCs

January is the bounceback month. Following the end-of-year slump that always hits newspaper sales, January traditionally sees stronger consumer buying patterns kick in again, backed by a stream of relaunches and promotions.

This January was no exception, with ABC volumes rising by 4% above December's levels. But this was not as strong an increase as those of the previous two years, which saw month-on-month jumps of between 6% and 7%.

The same picture emerges when looking at the year-on-year figures. Here, January 2008 is down 3.5% on last year. After a good autumn, when the year-on-year downturn across the whole market slowed to less than 2%, the rate of decline has been accelerating again.

But it is the Sun clearing 3m copies again that warrants further study. Despite giving newsagents headaches, the 4.5m energy-saving lightbulbs given away free with one of its Saturday editions helped to add 400,000 copies to that issue's sales. A range of holiday and DVD promotions drove up the average for the month.

Yet what is creating most interest is the paper's cover price policy. Cut-price sales account for 30% of its headline figure nationally in January, in comparison to under 20% a year ago.

The 20p Scottish Sun has extended its lead over the 35p Record to 44,000 copies, from 26,000 in the previous month. News International is edging the price up to 25p now that a sufficient lead has been established.

Four other titles had year-on-year sales increases in January: the Financial Times maintained its 3% rise; the Mail on Sunday was up 1% thanks to its relaunch as a two-section paper and a good dose of DVD promotions; the Daily Star Sunday rose 1%; and the Observer edged a slender 765 copies ahead of a year ago.

The London market is also showing some strong figures. Metro London has completed its planned sales expansion, which started in September and has levelled off at just over 750,000 copies. London Lite is sitting just below 400,000 copies, having taken what it describes as a "responsible approach to distribution" - a clear swipe at the London Paper, which has pushed back up strongly to 500,000 after a dip in December. After a wobbly year end, the Evening Standard has increased its fully paid sale and is looking a little steadier again.

So what about the year-on-year trends across the sectors? The midmarkets are down only 1.9% in January, boosted by the activity behind the two Mail titles, and the qualities have had a good spell, slowing their decline to 3% - but the redtops are still suffering with a 4.5% fall.

It has been a mixed start to a year which already promises some intriguing newspaper developments, many of which have a magazine angle to them. Sport Newspapers has hired an ex-magazine editor to turn the operation into what looks like a daily lads' mag.

Meanwhile, the News of the World has spent a reported £10m in replacing its broad-based Sunday magazine with the more targeted Fabulous.

There is a theory that all print media are converging on the magazine format and weekly frequency. Add in free distribution and you have a possible model for some national newspapers in the future.

Jim Bilton
The Guardian,
Monday February 11 2008